Crisis in Education High School Dropout Crisis Continues

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The 9th grade shock and the high school dropout crisis☆

Abstract

Retrospective questions on educational attainment in national surveys and censuses tend to over-estimate high school graduation rates by 15–20% points relative to administrative records. Administrative data on educational enrollment are, however, only available at the aggregate level (state, school district, and school levels) and the recording of inter-school transfers are generally incomplete. With access to linked individual-level administrative records from a very large "West Coast metropolitan school district" we track patterns of high school attrition and on-time high school graduation of individual students. Even with adjustments for the omission of out-of-district transfers (estimates of omission are presented), the results of this study show that failure in high school, as indexed by retention and attrition, are almost as common as on-time high school graduation. In addition to the usual risk factors of disadvantaged background, we find that the "9th grade shock"—an unpredicted decline in academic performance upon entering high school—is a key mechanism behind the continuing crisis of high school attrition.

Highlights

► We use administrative records to measure patterns of high school attrition and graduation. ► We find that failure, as measured by grade retention and attrition, are as common graduation. ► Our results challenge the notion that levels of high school completion are nearly universal. ► The '9th grade shock', a decline in 9th grade GPA relative to 8th, is a key explanatory variable. ► The '9th grade shock' both mediates background measures and is associated with graduation.

Introduction

The near universality of high school graduation is considered one of the major achievements of the American education system. Social indicators, based on survey and census data, show that high school completion has risen from about 50% of young adults in mid-20th century America to almost 90% among recent cohorts (Ingels et al., 2002, Mare, 1995, Stoops, 2004). Thus, it came as a surprise several years ago when studies reported that only 65–70% of high school students actually earned a high school diploma (Balfanz and Legters, 2004, Orfield, 2004, Swanson, 2004). These findings renewed debates over the high school dropout crisis, "dropout factories," and policies to reform and restructure American high schools.

Much of the controversy was fueled by statistical measurement—or differences in how to define and measure high school graduation. Until a few years ago, the expert opinion was that retrospective questions from household surveys and censuses on completed schooling—highest level of education—yielded reliable and valid measures of high school graduation. However, more recent studies based on administrative records of enrolled students, report a more dismal picture with the "on-time high school graduation rate" about 15–20% points lower than survey-based estimates (Greene and Winters, 2002, Laird et al., 2006, Seastrom et al., 2007, Hoffman et al., 2005, Warren, 2005, Warren and Halpern-Manners, 2007, Warren and Halpern-Manners, 2009). There are several reasons for the discrepancy between administrative and survey estimates of high school graduation, but the most important is the conflation of the receipt of a high school diploma and a high school equivalency certification (e.g. GED). Although about one-half of high school dropouts eventually receive some sort of alternative certificate of high school completion, a "real" high school diploma is worth considerable more in the labor market (Cameron and Heckman, 1993, Heckman and LaFontaine, 2006).

Not only do surveys and administrative records differ in their estimates of the prevalence of the high school graduation, but also their explanations of why students do not complete high school. Survey-based research emphasizes how individual level "risk factors" such as social class of origin, race/ethnicity, and gender influence educational opportunities and achievements (Featherman and Hauser, 1976, Hauser, 2004). Administrative data, based on school records, hold the potential to relate educational outcomes with the social organization of schooling and academic performance—factors that are difficult, if not impossible, to measure in standard household surveys of individuals and families. However, many sources of administrative data, such as the National Center for Educational Statistics' (NCES) Common Core of Data (CCD) are typically published (or released) for aggregate units, such as schools, which do not allow for the analysis of the joint and interdependent effects of institutional and student characteristics on schooling outcomes.

In this study, we illustrate the potential of micro-level analysis of linked administrative records to investigate the determinants of high school graduation as well as the cumulative processes of promotion, retention, and attrition of students for 6   years after entry into 9th grade. Our analysis is based on records of nearly 9000 high school students in a large West Coast metropolitan school district from 1994 to 2005. These data contain a wealth of individual level risk factors in addition to measures of academic performance and placement. With the universe of all students in the school system, we are able to track each student from the time they enter the school system until they leave the system or graduate. The results reported here confirm and expand upon those reported from similar studies in Chicago (Allensworth and Easton, 2005), Philadelphia (Balfanz et al., 2007) and other school districts (Gleason and Dynarski, 2002). Moreover, the findings presented here—particularly on the "9th grade shock" (a dramatic drop in academic performance upon entering high school)—provide new insights into the reasons for the persisting crisis of high school attrition.

Because of the contested and often confusing literature on attrition and graduation in American high schools, we begin with an overview of the conceptual and measurement problems of research on high school dropout and graduation. Then we turn to the analysis with two objectives in mind. The first is to offer a detailed description of the widespread patterns of failure in high school with a life-table model of the major pathways of progression, retention, and attrition. Although it is possible for high school students to recover from failure, in fact, very few actually do.

The second objective is to estimate a model of on-time high school graduation that highlights the role of early academic performance in high school as a critical mediating variable between social background and high school graduation. We find that many students encounter failure (not predicted by middle school academic performance) during their first term in high school. Students from disadvantaged backgrounds are particularly susceptible to the "ninth grade shock," but low grades in the first year of high school are far more pervasive and consequential than what would be predicted from background variables alone. In the concluding section of the paper, we review the range of possible explanations for why so many students stumble upon entering high school.

Section snippets

Measuring high school dropouts and completion

Until a few years ago, there was a remarkable consensus on the success of American high school graduation rates. Every national study based on household survey and census data shows an upward trend in high school completion over the course of the 20th century (Duncan, 1968, p. 655, Fischer and Hout, 2006, p. 13, Fox et al., 2005, p. 48, Hauser, 1997, p. 161, Mare, 1995, p. 162, Mare and Winship, 1988, p. 182). The wording or format of survey questions on educational attainment can have modest

Theories and models of high school attrition and completion

There is an extensive research literature on the correlates and causes of high school dropout, largely based on survey data (Rumberger, 1987, Rumberger, 2004, Hauser and Koenig, 2011). Given that surveys excel at measuring individual-level characteristics, many studies find a long list of individual "risk factors" that are associated with above average rates of academic failure and dropout. For example, African American, Native American, and Hispanic, as well as students born outside of the

Data

This study is based on unit-record school enrollment data from 1996 to 2005 for a large West Coast metropolitan school district. School records are maintained primarily for administrative needs, including the counts of students that are required to allocate budgets, teachers, and other resources within districts as well as to apply for financial support from state and federal governments. Student records include courses taken, grades received, and credits accumulated as well as demographic

Description of high school progress and graduation

Fig. 3 presents an overview of student enrollment and graduation for the four cohorts of students who entered 9th grade (for the first time) from 1996 to 1999. The first column simply shows the universe of students initially enrolled in the fall of their freshman year. By spring of the first year, only 93% of the initial cohort was still enrolled. Not all of the 7% "exits" are dropouts because out-of-district transfers are conflated with student attrition. However, the estimate of 93% of

A life table model of high school progression and attrition

Fig. 4 shows a more detailed year to year account of the myriad of pathways through high school using the prism of the demographic model of the life table (Chiang, 1983, Willett and Singer, 1991, Bowers, 2010). Specifically, Fig. 4 presents conditional probabilities of annual mobility, including progression to the next grade, retention at the same grade level, and exit from the population of enrolled students. These estimates are based on the linked records of three cohorts

Multivariate models of on-time high school graduation

The descriptive patterns in Fig. 3, Fig. 4 and in Table 2 suggest that failure is as common as success in the march toward on-time graduation in high school. What factors might explain these different pathways? The standard sociological model of educational stratification measures the relative effects of social background: socioeconomic status, family structure, race and ethnicity, and other individual-level "risk factors." Analysts of administrative data generally emphasize the institutional

Conclusions

According to data from the 2010 Current Population Survey, about 88% to 89% of all adult Americans below the age of 60 had completed high school (US Census Bureau, 2011). This figure is biased upwards because the CPS sample is limited to the household population, but primarily because most people conflate high school equivalency programs with high school graduation. Although both GED holders and high school graduates have "completed high school," most GED holders dropped out of a regular high

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